Stay in the Know: Carrier Trends & Market Updates
Dec 17, 2024
Stay in the Know: Carrier Trends & Market Updates
November Recap: Winter weather & holiday season impacting transportation
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 0.6% compared to October 2024.
- Spot Loads: Decreased by 25.7% compared to October 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
Key events that have increased the spot market: election outcome leading to possible tariff changes.
Major disruptions from November:
- With snow and cold weather picking up, we started to see van freight go on reefer trucks to protect freight from freezing.
- Additionally, adverse snow conditions resulted in delays in transit times, as several major roads were closed.
- With the election outcome, there have been talks of tariff changes. As customers prepare for those changes, we started to see customers plan to deliver their loads sooner.
- This is creating an increase in spot opportunities for December.
- The Thanksgiving holiday acted as a disruption due to shippers and receivers being closed, and carriers looking to get back to their main hub.
- This increased the spot market, allowing carrier rates to rise.
- Carriers and customers get ready for peak season. After Thanksgiving, many peak season opportunities begin, allowing more volume in the market.
- This increases the load to truck ratio creating a more expensive market.
October Recap: Key events within the month increasing spot market
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 1.4% compared to September 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 26.6% compared to September 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
Key events that have increased the spot market: ILA Strike, 2 major hurricanes (Helen & Milton) and peak season approaching.
Major disruptions from October:
- The ILA Strike ended after just a few days, but freight markets saw temporary fluctuations due to customers moving freight by other means.
- Hurricane Helene continued to impact supply chains in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland as facilities and carriers manage the aftermath. Hurricane Milton mainly affected Florida.
- Hurricanes increase spot loads going into those areas to aid for the damages and help deliver disaster relief.
- Peak Season approaching – November is when we officially start seeing a big push for peak season.
- In late October, we started to notice some changes in freight volumes.
- Higher volumes coming out of port areas, such as Los Angeles, getting ready to stock the stores for peak season.
- An increase in volume affects freight costs, leading to changes in truck load ratios.
September Recap: Spot loads decrease leading to more competitive market
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Increased by 1.4% compared to August 2024.
- Spot Loads: Decreased by 1.8% compared to August 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
Spot loads started to decrease after Labor Day and the end of September. This made the market more competitive, as the load to truck ratios for dry van and reefer freight declined while flatbed markets experienced tightening.
Major disruptions from September:
- Cost per mile for September stayed flat across the board.
- Increased loads out of the Midwest due to the crops harvested in these areas.
- Preparation for the ILA Strike, at the beginning of October and lasted for three days, affected ports and warehouses across North America.
- Towards the end of September, preparation for hurricane season including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. Helene caused a massive disruption across the Southeast, whereas Milton’s impact was much more isolated.
August Recap: Surge in Freight Services Demand Leading to Higher Carrier Rates
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 1.4% compared to July 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 13.1% compared to July 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
In August, there was an increase in demand for freight services, leading to higher carrier rates and more available spot loads. The capacity constraints were more pronounced in August, as carriers struggled to keep up with the surge in demand. Overall, the freight market was more favorable for carriers than the previous month. A combination of increased demand, capacity constraints, and other market dynamics likely contributed to the higher carrier rates in August 2024.
Major disruptions from August:
- There was an increase in port activity in Los Angeles and Houston. Due to Hurricane Beryl, plus shipping delays and early shipping activity to get ready for holiday season, ports started to see an increase in incoming freight making the freight market in those areas very volatile.
- Even though the Canadian rail strike was short, there are still lingering inflated rates.
- Seasonal market shifts:
- Midwest harvest started in August creating higher demand for trucks in the Midwest. There were cheaper carrier rates to go into the Midwest, but higher to come out.
- As produce season ends in Southeast, rates start to take a huge shift. Lower carrier rates coming out of Southeast leading to higher rates coming into Southeast.
July Recap: July Holidays and Events Create Disruptions
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 2.4% compared to June 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 7.0% compared to June 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
Due to holidays and events that occurred in the month of July, freight disruptions were seen across the board.
Major disruptions from July:
- Freight disruptions caused spot volumes to grow due to July holidays/events – Canada Day, 4th of July, Prime Day and DOT Operation Safe Driver Week.
- Hurricane Beryl caused delays and closures along the Texas coast.
- Produce season informally ended at the end of July in certain areas, specifically the Southeast and Southwest.
- Increased spot opportunities right before 4th of July, with a decline afterwards as the holiday came to an end.
- Cost per mile started to decline after the holidays due to volume decrease.
June Recap: Truckload Volume Growth
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 2.6% compared to May 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 9.4% compared to May 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
May 2024 was marked by truckload volume growth Week over Week (due to seasonal demands).
Major disruptions from June:
- Effects of high interest rates effecting the market for flatbeds and dry vans on construction related freight.
- Food and Beverage Volume started to increase gearing up for its peak season, increasing the demand for more reefer and dry van trucks.
- Juneteenth week slow down on freight as shippers and receivers were closed.
- Outbound CA and TX started to see a huge impact in seasonal market changes as volume started to grow.
May Recap: Various Disruptions Affecting Trucking Carrier Rates
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 0.5% compared to April 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 5.9% compared to April 2024.
Why does it matter to me?
May 2024 was marked by various disruptions that significantly influenced freight rates and load availability.
Major disruptions from May:
- DOT International Roadcheck Week started the trend of carrier rates increasing in certain areas.
- During Memorial Day weekend, there was a notable surge in Outbound Tender Rejections across the nation, indicating heightened demand for spot rates in critical areas.
- The trend has continued for lower rates and swift bookings for shipments bound for the southern region of the U.S.
- This pattern suggests that carriers are strategically situating themselves to secure more lucrative loads for the return journey from the South to the North.
- The truckload market (specifically for reefer, dry van and flatbed) volumes have been steadily increasing week-over-week in May.
- Fuel price fell for the eighth consecutive week and achieved its lowest value in the past 28 months.
April Recap: Load to Truck Ratio Increase
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 0.6% compared to March 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 6.9% compared to March 2024.
Why Does It Matter to Me?
Overall, with van and flatbed loads there was an increase month over month with load to truck ratio. A high load to truck ratio indicates a high demand for trucks, which can lead to increased freight rates and tighter capacity in the transportation industry. Even though there was a decrease in the spot loads, there was also a decrease in available trucks.
Major Disruptions to Look Out for:
- For refrigerated equipment, we started to see a shift in certain areas due to produce season.
- Example: Avocados in lower Texas, produce in Florida, and produce in Arizona.
- This caused a shift in the market, increasing rates coming outbound of those areas.
March Recap: Increased Competition Among Trucking Carriers in the Market
Fuel Price & Spot Load Highlights:
- Fuel Price: Decreased by 0.6% compared to February 2024.
- Spot Loads: Increased by 12.3% compared to February 2024.
Why Does It Matter to Me?
When the volume of spot loads increase, there is typically increased competition among carriers in the market. As a result of more carrier competition, this can drive down rates.
Major Disruptions to Look Out for:
- Due to increased demand for trucks in the Southern region of the U.S., many carriers will take a lower rate for a southbound move knowing they can recoup some of that cost through a load out of the Southern U.S.
- Collapse of Baltimore bridge has lead to lower load volume in area surrounding Baltimore, creating market shift for competitive drivers.
- Flatbed rates during construction season can be higher in areas that have more construction and development activity.
- You will also see more flatbed capacity migrate to certain regions to get away from weather, leading to higher rates as capacity grows.
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Stay in the Know: Carrier Trends & Market Updates
