Lunar New Year 2026: How U.S. Shippers Should Prepare

Each year, Chinese Lunar New Year (LNY) brings a predictable pause to global supply chains. Factories shut down, ports slow to a crawl and capacity tightens as cargo owners rush to move freight ahead of extended closures. What is different heading into Lunar New Year 2026 is not the holiday itself, but the unusual market conditions surrounding it.

This year, we are seeing sharp declines in imports booked to the U.S. ahead of Lunar New Year, trending toward the lowest pre–LNY volumes in nearly four years. At the same time, U.S. inventories appear increasingly lean, and consumer demand for imported goods remains resilient. These competing forces are putting U.S. importers on a tightrope as they plan for the months ahead.

Here’s what shippers need to know and how to prepare.

Why Pre–Lunar New Year Volumes Are So Low This Year

The most significant driver behind the muted pre–LNY shipping activity is tariff uncertainty.

Many U.S. importers are waiting on a Supreme Court ruling related to IEEPA tariffs. If the Court overturns them, we could see voided tariffs on Chinese goods, as well as goods from nearly every other country subject to those measures. With tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, the math is simple: if there’s a chance those costs disappear in the coming days, it makes financial sense to delay bookings.

In other words, importers are asking:

Why pay a steep tax today if it could be eliminated tomorrow?

This “wait-and-see” posture has significantly reduced near-term bookings, even as the Lunar New Year approaches.

The Inventory Reality Check

While imports have slowed, inventory levels in the U.S. tell a different story.

Across many sectors, inventories are declining or already lean, yet U.S. consumers continue to purchase largely imported goods. This imbalance suggests that a restocking cycle is inevitable. The only question is when and how abruptly it occurs.

That uncertainty is what makes this Lunar New Year cycle particularly complex.

Two Scenarios Shippers Should Be Planning For

As we head into Lunar New Year 2026, there are two realistic scenarios that could shape transportation markets through the spring and summer.

Scenario 1: A Late, Steep Frontload

If tariffs are overturned or meaningfully reduced, we could see:

• A sharp spike in bookings immediately following the ruling
• A compressed pre–LNY frontload, more intense than usual
• Increased pressure on ocean capacity, drayage and inland transportation

This scenario would likely create short-term congestion, higher spot rates and tighter capacity, especially for shippers that wait too long to act.

Scenario 2: A Weak Frontload, Heavier Spring and Summer

• If uncertainty persists or demand remains muted through LNY:
• Pre–LNY volumes stay soft
• Factories restart into a delayed but sustained restocking cycle
• Freight demand shifts heavily into late spring and summer

In this case, the market may appear calm in February, only to tighten materially by May or June as restocking accelerates.

Either way, volatility, not stability, should be expected.

Key Lunar New Year Dates to Know

Understanding the operational timeline in China is critical for planning:

• Chinese Lunar New Year begins: February 17, 2026
  • Factories and ports are largely closed for ~2 weeks
• Lantern Festival: March 3, 2026
  • Marks the official end of Lunar New Year
• Ramp-up period:
  • It takes several weeks for factories and ports to return to normal productivity
• Status quo returns:
  • Late March to early April

Even after workers return, labor shortages, equipment imbalances and production delays are common. You should assume normal transit times will not be restored until well into Q2.

What the Data Is Telling Us

Looking at import trends since 2023, the Lunar New Year cycle remains consistent:

• Volumes ramp up ahead of the holiday (timing varies year to year)
• Shipments drop sharply during factory and port closures
• A gradual recovery follows the return to work

What stands out in 2026 is that the ramp-up phase has been unusually weak, with imports on the water significantly below historical norms. That divergence suggests pent-up demand, rather than disappearing demand, increases the risk of a sudden surge later.

How U.S. Shippers Should Prepare Now

Given the uncertainty, the most resilient shippers are focusing on flexibility, optionality and visibility.

Here’s how to position yourself effectively:

1. Model Multiple Scenarios

Don’t plan for just one outcome. Build forecasts for:

• A tariff-driven surge
• A delayed restocking cycle
• Mixed-mode strategies that balance cost and speed

2. Secure Flexible Capacity

Work with partners who can:

• Scale capacity quickly if volumes spike
• Adjust routing and modes as conditions change
• Support both ocean and expedited inland moves if needed

3. Watch Inventory, Not Just Rates

Transportation decisions should be tied to inventory health, not just spot market pricing. Lean inventories reduce margin for error if supply chains tighten suddenly.

Final Thoughts

Chinese Lunar New Year 2026 is shaping up to be less about the holiday itself and more about what happens immediately before and after it. Tariff uncertainty, lean inventories and unpredictable demand patterns have created a fragile equilibrium that could shift rapidly.

For U.S. shippers, the key is preparation without overcommitment. Those who plan for volatility, maintain flexibility and lean on experienced logistics partners will be best positioned to navigate whatever comes next.

If you’re unsure how these dynamics impact your network, now is the time to step back, assess and design a plan that holds up under multiple outcomes.