What the U.S.-Iran Deal Means for Your Freight Costs

In mid-June 2026, the United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear and sanctions issues. Oil markets reacted immediately, and many shippers hoped for fast relief on freight costs.

That relief is coming, but more slowly than the headlines suggest. Commercial traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, though volumes remain below pre-war levels and conditions are still volatile. Diesel prices may keep easing, but fuel surcharges and total freight costs are likely to stay elevated well into the second half of 2026.

For shippers, the takeaway is simple: focus on total freight cost, not just the headlines.

How We Got Here: The Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock

When U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran in late February 2026, Iran responded by effectively disrupting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. The International Energy Agency called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel, at times trading between $100 and $120. Diesel felt it hardest: prices climbed from about $3.76 per gallon in late February to $5.69 per gallon by early April, per AAA, with the weekly average in late March up nearly 39% from pre-war levels. Diesel is one of the largest variable costs in trucking, so a move like that quickly reshaped fuel surcharges, spot rates and shipping budgets.

Is Traffic Moving Through the Strait of Hormuz Again?

Yes, but conditions aren’t back to normal. Commercial traffic has resumed, but volumes remain below pre-war levels and the situation is still volatile. That means the risk of disruption has gone down, but it hasn’t disappeared.

Will Diesel Prices Fall Right Away?

No. The deal should help diesel prices move lower over time, but it won’t create immediate relief, for a few reasons:

• Tankers aren’t teleporters. Even with Hormuz reopening, tanker traffic, cargo scheduling, insurance, port congestion and refinery planning all take time to normalize.
• Strategic reserves are depleted. U.S. reserves have fallen 18% since the conflict began, to their lowest levels since 1983, and rebuilding them can slow how quickly lower crude prices reach the pump.
• Peak summer demand is a headwind. The U.S. enters its highest-demand driving months right as Hormuz stabilizes, and jet fuel demand competes with diesel for refinery output.
• Fuel surcharges reset on a lag. Many programs are tied to weekly EIA benchmarks, so lower oil prices today don’t always mean lower shipping costs this week.

Oil did react quickly: Brent crude fell back into the low-to-mid $70s per barrel by late June. But diesel is moving down more gradually. A realistic landing zone is $4.00–$4.50 per gallon by late fall, if the deal holds, still well above pre-war levels near $3.50.

Will Freight Rates Fall Right Away?

No. Freight pricing has two main parts:

• Linehaul: the base cost to move freight from origin to destination.
• Fuel surcharge (FSC): a floating fee tied to weekly diesel price benchmarks.

When diesel spiked, spot rates moved first because carriers price loads in real time. Contract rates followed more slowly, through rising fuel surcharges and, in some cases, higher linehaul rates during renegotiation. Because surcharge tables are set from EIA-published weekly averages, they won’t reset the moment a deal is signed, and linehaul rates still reflect capacity, labor, equipment and lane demand, all of which remain strained.

There’s also a capacity story: the conflict pushed many margin-squeezed small carriers and owner-operators out of the market once diesel crossed $5 per gallon. That capacity doesn’t return just because crude oil pulls back.

Why Are Total Freight Costs Still High?

Total freight costs remain elevated because the market is still working through the fuel shock. Diesel is still above pre-conflict levels; fuel surcharges are sticky, and some carrier capacity that exited during the spike hasn’t returned. That’s why shippers should focus on the full cost to move freight, not just how far oil prices have fallen from their peak.

What Should Shippers Expect for the Rest of 2026?

Expect gradual improvement, not a fast return to pre-conflict conditions:

• Diesel should trend lower but likely lands around $4.00-$4.50 per gallon by late fall, not back near pre-war levels.
• Fuel surcharges will likely stay elevated through at least Q3 because of benchmark lag.
• Spot rates may soften before contract rates if diesel improves and capacity returns, so shippers negotiating contract freight should gather market data early.
• Total transportation costs are likely to stay above January 2026 levels through much of the second half of the year.

Shippers who want to track diesel, capacity and rate movement week to week can follow NTG’s Weekly Freight Trends.

What Should Shippers Do Now?

• Audit fuel surcharge programs. Know which benchmark your carriers use and how often it resets.
• Focus on load optimization. Better consolidation and planning cut costs without waiting on the market.
• Plan and book earlier. Shippers booking 3–4 weeks out typically get better capacity access than those booking last minute.
• Track the EIA weekly diesel report. It’s one of the most reliable signals for fuel surcharge direction.
• Partner with a freight provider who sees the full market. Broad carrier relationships and real-time data help you make decisions based on data, not headlines.

The Bottom Line

The U.S.-Iran deal is genuinely good news for energy markets and removes the worst-case scenario from the table, but it doesn’t mean freight costs are snapping back to normal. Commercial traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, though flows remain below pre-war levels. Diesel should keep easing, but fuel surcharges and total freight costs are likely to stay elevated into the second half of 2026.

Shippers who succeed in this environment won’t be the ones waiting for a quick snapback. They’ll be the ones managing freight strategically: optimizing loads, strengthening carrier relationships, and staying close to the data. At NTG, that’s the conversation we’re having with customers every day. If you want to talk through your freight strategy for the second half of 2026, we’re ready to help.