Weekly Freight Trends: August 10–14, 2026

The summer lull in truckload is real, but it is not the story. Spot rates have pulled back more than 17% since the July 4 peak, tender rejections are at their lowest point since before the holiday and freight is covering without difficulty, while the same market is setting up for a Southern California congestion event driven by El Nino-disrupted Panama Canal transits that could define peak season for importers. Meanwhile, Amazon officially surpassed USPS to become the largest parcel carrier in the United States, gig and regional carriers grew volume 127% year over year and both major parcel incumbents are in the middle of significant network transitions. The window to act on the current softness is open. It will not stay that way.

Key Takeaways 

• Tender rejections have fallen to 13.61% and spot rates are down more than 17% from the July 4 peak, creating a brief negotiating window for shippers before peak season demand accelerates around Labor Day.
• El Nino water level restrictions in the Panama Canal are expected to divert large neo-Panamax vessels to LA/Long Beach during peak season, setting up significant port congestion, dray rate increases and inland capacity pressure across Southern California.
• Amazon overtook USPS to become the largest U.S. parcel carrier at 6.9 billion annual shipments; gig and regional carriers grew 127% year over year as the parcel market continues to diversify beyond traditional incumbent networks.
• Both major parcel carriers are executing significant network transitions, with FedEx advancing its Network 2.0 consolidation and UPS focusing on higher-margin enterprise accounts; shippers in affected markets should confirm service coverage and build contingency options.
• LTL carriers are beginning to report early signs of volume growth and average shipment weights are rising across the network, consistent with ISM Manufacturing PMI at its highest level since May 2022.

Port to Porch Forecast

Full Truckload: Is the Summer Softness a Window or A Warning?

Tender rejections have fallen to 13.61%, continuing a steady decline that began the week before the July 4 holiday. Spot rates are down more than 17% from the July 4 peak without fuel and approximately 11% with fuel included, with week-over-week declines of roughly 3% without fuel and about 2% with fuel. Freight is moving without significant difficulty across most lanes and brokers report that coverage is straightforward at current market levels. Accepted truckload volume through most of July has tracked below comparable 2025 periods, which is the more complete picture of where demand stands.

The year-over-year comparison is still the headline. Even after the post-holiday pullback, rates remain meaningfully above last year’s levels and the capacity that exited the market over the past three years has not returned. Contract rates are holding while spot continues to ease, and some shippers are expected to move aggressively on contract negotiations over the next two months to lock in favorable rates before holiday peak resets the dynamic. The consensus from carriers and brokers is that Q4 volatility kicks off around Labor Day, driven by peak season demand and the container dynamics building now at origin ports in Asia.

Flatbed remains the most volatile segment. Load-to-truck ratios are elevated in a way that does not align with freight actually sitting on docks: freight is moving, but through secondary and tertiary carrier waterfalls rather than primary guide compliance. Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle remain notably elevated while West Coast flatbed rates are showing relief and broader conditions are easing across most of the country. RFP activity has slowed over the past week as teams close out existing cycles, and larger shippers are expected to release their 2027 annual RFPs as early as next month.

Parcel: What Does Amazon Becoming the #1 Volume Carrier Mean for Shippers?

Amazon officially surpassed USPS to become the largest parcel carrier in the United States by annual shipment volume, reaching 6.9 billion shipments. USPS now sits at 6.2 billion. UPS’s volume moved from 4.7 billion to 4.3 billion shipments, reflecting its intentional strategic shift toward higher-margin enterprise relationships, a repositioning the carrier has communicated as deliberate. FedEx gained ground, moving from 3.7 billion to 3.9 billion shipments. Gig and regional carriers grew shipment volume 127% year over year, a structural shift in last-mile delivery that is accelerating faster than the traditional duopoly-focused view of the market captures.

Service performance continues to differentiate carriers in ways that volume share alone does not capture. UPS leads with a 97.2% on-time delivery rate, followed by FedEx at 95.3%, and UPS appears to be leaning into that service quality advantage as part of its strategic repositioning. UPS also launched a new pickup scheduling dashboard this week for small and mid-sized shippers, giving infrequent shippers the ability to schedule pickups and gain driver arrival visibility without the cost of a dedicated on-call pickup agreement. FedEx’s Network 2.0 consolidation is advancing rapidly, with more than 200 of its planned 475 facility closures completed as the carrier integrates Express and Ground operations under a single unified structure.

As independent contractors take on combined route responsibilities across previously separate networks in newly converted FedEx markets, some shippers are experiencing a transition period in which pickup consistency is still developing. Shippers in recently converted markets should confirm current pickup schedules with their FedEx account team and maintain contingency options for time-sensitive freight while the new network structure stabilizes. The pace of the transition reflects the carrier’s decision to move through the integration as quickly as possible and emerge with a more efficient unified operation.

Less-than-Truckload (LTL): Are Volume Increases Starting to Build?

LTL had a relatively quiet week on the news front after several consecutive weeks of significant structural activity. The more notable development is anecdotal but consistent: carriers are beginning to report early signs of volume building in their networks. The July ISM Manufacturing PMI, at its highest reading since May 2022, has generated positive sentiment across the LTL community and production gains at that scale have historically translated into freight demand within a few weeks. However, that translation has not yet shown up in broad network data.

Average shipment weight is up across nearly all major LTL carriers, with ABF posting the largest gain attributed in part to its dynamic pricing model pulling heavier shipments into the network to optimize long-haul density. Carriers continue to rely on purchased transportation for capacity in specific markets, with drop trailer availability constrained on some lanes. Outside of carriers that are currently holding available capacity while market pricing develops, tightness is isolated to pockets rather than widespread. Shippers should revalidate service availability on primary LTL lanes, given ongoing network changes across the industry.

The practical implication for shippers with recurring LTL lanes is to verify current service availability before peak season demand accelerates, particularly in markets where terminal consolidations have changed routing options over the past several months. Establishing contingency carrier relationships now is lower-cost than scrambling for coverage after volumes build. Carriers that are positioned with available capacity today will have less incentive to negotiate on rates as market conditions tighten in Q4.

Intermodal and Drayage: What Does El Nino Mean for LA/Long Beach This Peak Season?

El Nino-driven water level reductions in the Panama Canal are restricting neo-Panamax vessel transits during the current season. The large vessels that would normally carry peak season cargo directly from Asia to Gulf and East Coast ports are too large to navigate the canal at reduced water levels, which means peak season container volume is being disproportionately routed to LA/Long Beach. With a two-to-three week ocean transit from Asia, the containers arriving over the next several weeks are the freight that will flow through the domestic truckload network during October and November.

LA/Long Beach has historically faced challenges absorbing concentrated volume surges of this magnitude. Port-level pressure restricts container movement to inland rail connections, and international containers on rail experience disproportionate delays when throughput is stressed. The downstream effect is predictable: dray and transloading activity increases as shippers move containers off terminal ahead of rail access, warehousing demand builds across the Inland Empire and surrounding Southern California markets and long-haul dray out of the region commands rate premiums that have not yet materialized in current pricing. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, confirmed this week that cargo continues to move at pace and the expected post-tariff-deadline slowdown has not materialized.

Shippers with significant import exposure routed through West Coast gateways should be building contingency dray coverage and inland warehousing options now rather than waiting for congestion to develop. The freight arriving at LA/Long Beach over the next several weeks is the inventory moving through domestic distribution in October. Locking in dray relationships and inland capacity commitments before peak season begins will be materially less expensive than sourcing them after congestion builds.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, July 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for July 2026, released August 7, reported a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls, the first negative monthly figure in more than two years. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, but prior month revisions removed an additional 103,000 jobs from the published record, with May revised down 66,000 to a gain of 63,000 and June revised down 37,000 to a gain of 20,000. Retail trade shed 19,000 positions and financial activities lost 14,000, sectors with direct freight implications given their role in driving goods demand and inventory replenishment. Retail employment contractions have historically led freight volume declines by two to three months, and the combined signal from the July print and the magnitude of prior month revisions represents a meaningful shift in the labor market trajectory. The next BLS release is September 4.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, July 2026

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July fell to 90.8, the third consecutive monthly decline and below the consensus forecast of 92.4. The Present Situation Index dropped 3.6 points to 114.9 and the Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ near-term outlook for business conditions, income and the labor market, fell to 74.7. Readings below 80 on the Expectations Index have historically been associated with elevated recession probability when sustained across multiple months. The consecutive declines in both present conditions and forward expectations reinforce the picture visible in the July payroll data: consumer-facing demand is softening in ways that will eventually show up in retail and parcel freight volumes. The Conference Board releases its next reading on August 25.

Looking Ahead: What Shippers Should Watch Now

The freight market enters this week in a summer softness that carries more structural risk than current rate tables suggest. Spot rates are declining and coverage is straightforward, but the forces shaping Q4 are building simultaneously: peak season cargo is two to three weeks from California arrival, LTL network contraction continues to remove capacity from affected corridors and the July macro data points to a consumer whose durability is less certain than freight pricing reflects. The current softness is a planning window, not a market signal.

Brake Safety Week runs from August 23-29 and will bring increased roadside inspection activity across the national carrier network. Shippers moving time-sensitive freight during that window should build additional transit time into their planning assumptions. The next BLS Employment Situation releases September 4 and the Conference Board August Consumer Confidence reading comes August 25. Shippers who use the current window to secure Q4 capacity commitments, revalidate LTL routing guides against current network availability and build contingency dray coverage for Southern California peak season congestion will be better positioned than those who treat the summer lull as a durable market condition.