Weekly Freight Trends: August 31–September 4, 2026

The freight market heads into peak season carrying two conflicting signals. Truckload cost per mile sits near its lowest point in roughly 15 weeks, yet nearly every mode is bracing for a reversal expected around Labor Day. Parcel carriers are locking in peak surcharges, drayage costs are climbing on trade policy and canal disruption, and regional capacity is already tightening. Shippers who move now, while pricing still favors them, will be better positioned than those waiting for the market to signal the shift itself.

Key Takeaways

• The national average price for on-highway diesel stood at $5.599 per gallon as of August 31, down $0.053 from the prior week and up $1.865 from a year ago, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• Truckload cost per mile is near its lowest point in roughly 15 weeks, but week-over-week swings this cycle are running about double their typical size, and Labor Day is expected to mark the start of the seasonal reversal.
• UPS, the U.S. Postal Service and OnTrac have all announced peak season demand or rate actions, joining FedEx’s earlier surcharge announcement, with OnTrac implementing a demand surcharge for the first time in its history.
• SMC3’s new LTL class rate base increase held at 5.8% for a second consecutive year, a signal the LTL market remains healthy even as carrier scrutiny on freight claims intensifies.
• Drayage import volume is up 6% year over year per Sonar’s Inbound Ocean Trade Index, even as trans-Pacific ocean rates keep climbing on Panama Canal constraints and new US-Canada and US-China tariff actions.
• New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% in July, the fourth increase in five months, reinforcing the manufacturing-linked freight demand signal carriers have watched heading into peak.

Port to Porch Forecast

Truckload: The Quiet Before a Volatile Peak

Truckload cost per mile has spent several weeks near its lowest point since spring, in a lull between the sharp summer run-up and the seasonal climb expected in the fourth quarter. Volume is following the pattern the market sees most years, easing through July and August before building back in September. That pattern is holding even though the cost floor remains elevated versus last year, and fuel jumped significantly this week, pressuring all-in costs while linehaul pricing stayed flat.

The bigger story is volatility, not direction. Week-over-week swings in cost per mile are running roughly double the typical pace, which carrier partners attribute to an elevated cost base amplifying the dollar impact of any disruption. Regional dynamics are diverging sharply: freight out of the Pacific Northwest and Northeast is tightening ahead of peak, while lanes north out of the South and West Coast command a premium as import volume outpaces last year. Flatbed has softened meaningfully in recent RFQs, with incumbent carriers submitting notably lower pricing even as van and reefer conditions stay mixed by lane.

Shippers weighing whether to go to market now should move before mid-October, the window carrier partners see as most advantageous before the market tightens into November and December, with better pricing unlikely again until March. The market has little tolerance for disruption right now, and any weather event or demand spike is likely to move spot rates quickly given how tight elasticity has become. Shippers with freight through the Pacific Northwest or Northeast should build in lead time now.

Parcel and Last Mile: Peak Surcharges Are Locking In Across the Board

The parcel peak surcharge picture is now fully in view. UPS, the U.S. Postal Service and OnTrac have all followed FedEx’s July announcement with their own peak pricing actions, and every major carrier’s surcharges are stronger than a year ago. The Postal Service is pursuing a temporary 6% rate increase pending approval, while UPS and OnTrac are both implementing demand surcharges, a notable shift for OnTrac, which has not historically applied one.

Effective dates vary by carrier. UPS’s demand surcharges begin September 24, FedEx has multiple surcharges starting as early as September 28, the Postal Service’s proposed increase would take effect October 4 if approved and OnTrac’s surcharge begins October 24, with all four running through mid-January. The trend now points one direction, and shippers should expect less variance between national carriers on peak pricing than in past years. Regional carriers are moving in parallel, with GoFO and GLS both expanding their Texas coverage ahead of peak.

Shippers should build these surcharge schedules into fourth quarter cost models now rather than after invoices reflect them. Alignment across UPS, FedEx, the Postal Service and OnTrac means shippers can no longer count on shifting volume to a surcharge-free carrier as a mitigation strategy. Reviewing contract terms for surcharge caps or negotiated exceptions before the September effective dates begin is the more actionable lever right now.

LTL: Is the Market Healthier Than the Headlines Suggest?

LTL had a quiet week on the news front, but two data points are worth watching. SMC3 announced the release date and increase amount for its new class rate base, holding the increase at 5.8%, unchanged from last year and up from 4.6% in 2024. That stability, rather than a step down, signals carriers still read the underlying market as healthy.

The more notable shift is in freight claims. Carriers are contesting claims far more aggressively than in the past, including smaller dollar amounts that historically would have been paid without much scrutiny. Better internal data and analytics are giving carriers more visibility into the true cost and profitability impact of claims, letting them manage the process with a rigor the industry has generally lagged in developing. Some carriers are now paying out claims bonuses at a higher rate than claims payouts themselves, a milestone some are framing as evidence of improved handling quality.

Shippers should expect claims disputes to take longer and require more documentation regardless of claim size. Building stronger freight condition documentation at time of tender and delivery will matter more this peak season. The stable rate base increase also suggests shippers negotiating LTL contracts this fall should not expect carriers to concede meaningfully on price.

Drayage and Ocean: Trade Policy Is Now the Biggest Cost Driver

Costs across drayage and ocean are rising broadly, and nothing on the horizon points to relief. Trans-Pacific ocean rates keep climbing, driven by port congestion in China and constrained Panama Canal transit levels rather than a genuine surge in cargo volume. Drayage import volume is up 6% year over year per Sonar’s Inbound Ocean Trade Index, a healthy but not extraordinary gain confirming demand is not the primary force behind rising rates.

Trade policy is adding a second layer of cost and uncertainty. The US has placed 50% tariffs on non-USMCA goods from Canada, and Canada’s dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8. Tariffs on Chinese goods are also increasing ahead of an expected Trump-Xi summit around September 24, and shippers should expect further volatility around that date regardless of outcome. East Coast drayage rates are climbing too, driven by carriers exiting service over compliance issues and rising fuel surcharge costs rather than volume growth, while trucking capacity supporting drayage keeps shrinking and getting more expensive.

Importers should treat the next several weeks as the window to get freight moving. Shippers sourcing from Asia should prioritize getting product into the US ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, given the potential for further tariff escalation on short notice. Anyone without transload or warehouse capability on the West Coast should establish it now to avoid long transit times if freight reroutes away from Gulf and East Coast gateways. Sticking with trusted, established drayage carriers is the more reliable strategy given how much the available carrier pool keeps shrinking.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Durable Goods Orders, July 2026

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.1% in July to $339.3 billion, the fourth increase in five months, per the Census Bureau’s advance report. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.4%, and excluding defense, orders rose 1.3%, with transportation equipment itself up 2.3% after two straight monthly declines. Growth concentrated in transportation equipment and manufacturing durables points to continued flatbed and van demand tied to industrial production, reinforcing the manufacturing expansion signal carriers have flagged in recent weeks. The August durable goods report is due September 25.

Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 

Personal income rose 0.4% in July and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%, but real, inflation-adjusted PCE was essentially flat for the month, per BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays release. The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, with the core reading up 3.3% year over year. Spending is still growing in dollar terms, but real growth has stalled even as prices climb, a combination that lines up with this week’s drayage read that consumers can only absorb so much of rising import costs. Flat real spending is a caution flag for parcel and retail-linked freight volume heading into peak even as manufacturing indicators stay positive. The next release, covering August, is due September 30.

ISM Manufacturing PMI, August 2026

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026, released September 1 by the Institute for Supply Management, extended U.S. manufacturing sector expansion to eight consecutive months, following July’s reading of 55.6%, which was the strongest monthly reading since 2021. Sustained expansion at those levels signals that the industrial demand rebound that emerged in early 2026 has durability, and the streak is now long enough to support a structural reading rather than a cyclical interpretation. For freight markets, eight months of consecutive manufacturing expansion translates into continued industrial freight demand on flatbed, van and intermodal lanes, with customer inventory levels still reported as too low, historically a positive leading indicator for production increases in the months ahead. The September Manufacturing PMI is due October 1.

Looking Ahead: The Window Before Peak Closes

Every mode this week points to the same dynamic: current pricing looks calmer than the forces building underneath it. Truckload rates sit near a multi-week low even as volatility and regional tightness signal a reversal is coming. Parcel carriers have fully aligned on peak surcharges. Drayage and ocean costs are climbing on trade policy and canal constraints rather than demand growth, and durable goods orders confirm manufacturing-linked freight demand remains solid even as real consumer spending has stalled.

Shippers have a narrow window to act before that reversal takes hold. Get truckload RFQs and mini-bids to market before mid-October, model the new parcel surcharge schedules into fourth quarter budgets now and lock in drayage and inland warehousing capacity ahead of the Trump-Xi summit given how quickly trade policy is shifting. The market has little tolerance for disruption, and shippers who move in the next several weeks will be far better positioned than those who wait for the calm to break.