Weekly Freight Trends: November 2-6, 2026

The freight market is entering the final stretch before peak. October ended softer than expected, but the underlying conditions are not soft. Tender rejections are running at roughly double last year’s level, contract rates are repricing at the highest pace seen since 2021, and UPS and FedEx have both signaled they intend to extract more yield from their networks this peak on less volume. A deceptively quiet week in spot freight is masking conditions that could shift quickly as November progresses.

Key Takeaways

• UPS and FedEx each reported Q3 earnings last week, beating expectations and posting identical revenue of $22.9 billion. Both raised full-year guidance. Both are running explicit strategies of profitability over volume, and surcharges are a central tool in both playbooks. New surcharges from USPS and GLS extend that dynamic beyond the traditional big two.
• The NMFTA has added an unscheduled docket for 2026 with a single item: the mixed commodity classification rule that stalled twice earlier this year. An additional docket targeting one rule is highly unusual and is widely read as a signal the carrier community has enough support to push it through this time. Shippers who ship mixed-commodity pallets and currently benefit from class-based relief on individual items should treat this as a near-term planning event.
• October ended softer than it started, but year-over-year conditions are dramatically tighter. Tender rejections held above 10% all month, and contract rates are repricing at levels last seen in 2021. The rate floor has moved up and is not coming back down.
• Average shipment weight is rising across all major LTL carriers. This is a consistent signal that truckload freight is migrating down to LTL as full-truckload capacity stays constrained and contract rates move higher.
• A port labor dispute at Los Angeles and Long Beach reaches its contract deadline on November 4. ILWU Local 26 has threatened a strike that could trigger sympathy work stoppages across six marine terminals at the nation’s busiest container gateway, at exactly the moment import volumes are running near three-year highs.

Port to Porch

Truckload: A Quiet October Sets Up a Critical November

October ended softer than it started. Spot market costs trended down modestly week over week, and tender rejections were flat to down through most of the month. In isolation, the data looks like a market at ease. In context, it does not.

Tender rejections remained above 10% throughout October. At this point last year, rejections were running in the mid-single digits. The year-over-year comparison is what matters: this market is tighter than it has been in years, and the softness within October reflects a seasonal lull, not a structural shift.

Contract rate repricing is accelerating. When shipper-carrier agreements reprice after extended stable periods, the average percentage change is running at the highest level since 2021. Shippers in active procurement cycles should expect materially higher contract rates than what was in place at the beginning of the year, and the gap is widening as more contracts roll.

One equipment dynamic is worth watching. Trailer orders surged in September at a pace not seen in years. The read from fleet operators is that this is a cost-defensive move to get ahead of tariff increases on equipment imported from China and manufactured in Canada and Mexico, not a signal that capacity is expanding. Class 8 tractor sales are below last year on an annual basis.

Week 47 of the freight calendar, which begins November 16, is historically when cost per mile breaks sharply higher heading into peak. With the last major pre-Christmas shipping date falling around December 18, the peak window is compressed. Shippers who have not secured capacity should act now.

Parcel: Earnings Beat, Guidance Raised, Surcharge Universe Expands

UPS and FedEx reported third-quarter results on consecutive days this week. Both beat expectations and each posted revenue of $22.9 billion. Both raised full-year guidance heading into peak.

UPS maintained the higher operating margin at 9.0%, though it declined from the prior year as the carrier deliberately reduced exposure to lower-yield volume. FedEx improved its margin to 5.3%, with strength in international operations. FedEx average daily volume grew 2% while UPS volume declined 3.3% as part of a strategy to prioritize profitable freight over volume share. Both carriers saw positive revenue-per-piece growth, reflecting pricing discipline and a shift toward higher-yielding commercial and healthcare freight.

The strategic posture from both carriers is identical: profitability over volume. Surcharges are the primary instrument. Shippers with freight in healthcare, automotive and technology categories can expect continued yield pressure from both networks through 2027.

Holiday shipping is already running ahead of last year’s pace. Volume at major parcel carriers is tracking above prior-year levels for this point in October, indicating that shippers and consumers are pulling forward activity rather than waiting for the final pre-Christmas sprint. Peak will still materialize, but the shape may be broader than in recent years.

USPS is introducing a weekly fuel surcharge, following the surcharge model established by UPS and FedEx. GLS has announced a peak surcharge as well. These moves expand the surcharge footprint beyond the traditional big two and reflect an industry-wide shift in how carriers manage peak-period cost exposure.

UniUni’s exit from the U.S. market is now official. Final-mile volume and site sort operations have been transferred to GOFO. UniUni retains a Canadian business but is not expected to remain a viable domestic carrier option in 2027.

LTL: Q3 Earnings Show Revenue Growth Across the Board; NMFTA Rule Watch Intensifies

LTL carriers broadly grew revenue in the third quarter, with all major reporting carriers posting solid revenue gains year over year. The pattern beneath the headline varies by carrier. Those that held firm on pricing absorbed some volume loss, while more competitively priced carriers gained share. The takeaway: pricing discipline is holding, but freight is moving toward carriers willing to be more flexible on rate.

The universal trend across Q3 LTL earnings is rising average shipment weight. Every carrier that reported weight data showed an increase. This is a consistent indicator that full-truckload freight is falling into the LTL channel as truckload contract rates move higher and capacity stays constrained. Shippers converting from truckload to LTL are sending heavier pallets, and carriers are seeing it across the network.

The NMFTA has added an unscheduled special docket for 2026 with a single agenda item: the mixed commodity classification rule. Adding a dedicated docket for one rule is unusual and signals that the carrier community has built sufficient support to advance it. If the rule passes, mixed-commodity pallets would be rated based on pallet-level dimensions and density, without regard to the individual items within the pallet. Shippers who currently benefit from lower item-level class ratings within mixed loads should treat this as a near-term planning consideration. The pricing implications would be meaningful for a broad range of shippers.

Ocean / Drayage: Strike Deadline Arrives as Volumes Hold Near Three-Year Highs

A contract dispute between ILWU Local 26, representing approximately 250 unionized security watchmen, and the Pacific Maritime Association reaches its negotiation deadline today, November 4. If a strike begins, picket lines could prompt other ILWU locals to refuse to cross, potentially halting vessel, yard and gate operations across six marine terminals at Los Angeles and Long Beach. The ports handle the largest share of U.S. container imports. The timing is as difficult as possible: volumes are running near three-year highs, holiday merchandise is moving and the system has limited tolerance for disruption.

Even absent a work stoppage, the threat is already influencing routing decisions. Cargo has been shifting to alternative gateways throughout 2026, with Savannah, Tacoma, Houston and New York/New Jersey all seeing continued share gains. Rail dwell at Los Angeles and Long Beach hit 7.19 days in September, the highest reading of the year, adding another layer of friction for importers dependent on West Coast flow.

Ocean container volumes held through the traditional Golden Week slowdown this year rather than pulling back, and inbound volume remains above its 12-month average. The National Retail Federation’s import forecast shows growth decelerating sharply in the months ahead: up 8.5% year over year in October, declining to roughly flat in November, and recovering modestly in December. The deceleration fits the front-loading story that has defined 2026 import behavior.

Two tariff timelines are shaping Q4 strategy. Mexico’s tariff truce was approaching resolution as of late October, though steel and aluminum rates remained unresolved. The U.S.-China tariff truce runs through January 10, close enough to year-end that it is a real factor in how importers evaluate whether current Q4 volume represents genuine demand or pre-tariff positioning. The answer matters for what early 2027 freight demand actually looks like.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Durable Goods Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.8% in September to $345.4 billion, the sixth increase in the past seven months. Transportation equipment led the gain, up 4.6%. Excluding transportation, orders increased a more modest 0.5%, and excluding defense, orders rose 2.2%. The headline number is healthy, but the composition matters: transportation-driven gains reflect capital equipment and defense procurement cycles more than broad manufacturing demand. The ex-transportation read, at 0.5%, is the better indicator of underlying industrial activity and is consistent with a manufacturing sector that is expanding but not accelerating.

GDP: Q3 2026 Advance Estimate

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Growth was driven by increases in investment, consumer spending and government spending, partially offset by a decline in exports. Imports increased, which subtracts from the GDP calculation. The headline number is strong, but the distribution of that growth matters. The expansion is concentrated in segments of the economy less connected to freight demand, including high-end consumer spending supported by equity wealth. The macroeconomic picture and the freight demand picture are not telling the same story.

Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income rose 0.2% in September, and current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. In real terms, PCE was essentially flat, with real disposable personal income declining 0.3%. The PCE price index rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% year over year. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% year over year. The personal saving rate held at 3.8%. The data describes a consumer who is spending nominally but not gaining ground in real terms. With inflation running above 3.5% and real income declining, the discretionary spending capacity that drives freight demand in consumer goods channels remains under pressure.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate steady at its October meeting, voting 10 to 2 to maintain the current level. The two dissenting members voted in favor of a quarter-point increase. The decision signals a wait-and-see stance ahead of additional inflation data, but the dissent is notable. With PCE inflation running above 3.5% year over year, the committee is not yet comfortable enough with the direction of prices to ease. The next meeting is scheduled for December. A rate increase at that meeting is possible and would add to the cost-of-capital pressure carriers, fleet operators and shippers are already managing.

Looking Ahead

The port situation at Los Angeles and Long Beach is the most immediate variable in the supply chain right now. A work stoppage, even a brief one, at the busiest container gateway in the country would compound an already congested West Coast operation and accelerate cargo diversion to East and Gulf Coast ports. Importers with West Coast dependencies should know their contingency routing before they need it, not after.

Week 47, which begins November 16, is the historical inflection point for peak-season rate acceleration in truckload. Between now and then, shippers still working through capacity planning are in the last window where current market conditions apply. Once volume builds, the ability to secure capacity at today’s rates compresses quickly.

The NMFTA vote on the mixed commodity rule is the most consequential near-term event for LTL pricing. Shippers who rely on item-level class ratings within mixed-commodity pallets should be modeling the rate impact now rather than reacting after the fact. The timing of any implementation will matter as much as the rule itself.

The U.S.-China tariff truce expires January 10. The closer we get to year-end, the more important it becomes to separate genuine Q4 freight demand from pre-tariff positioning. Importers who have been pulling volume forward should be honest with themselves about what Q1 2027 demand looks like once that front-loading incentive is gone.