Weekly Freight Trends: November 9–13, 2026

Peak season is here, and the data is sending conflicting signals. The spot market is soft and brokers are chasing volume, yet driver availability is running at multi-year lows, carrier supply is structurally constrained, and the port situation in Los Angeles and Long Beach remains unresolved. The quiet on the surface is not the story. The story is what happens when volume builds into a system that has very little room to absorb it.

Key Takeaways

• The NMFTA released the full text of its proposed mixed commodity classification rule this week. The rule allows shippers to continue itemizing freight on the bill of lading, but adds requirements that define more precisely what a carrier can do in response. Shippers who ship mixed-commodity pallets and rely on item-level class ratings should read the rule text directly before drawing conclusions about their exposure.
• Peak parcel volume is expected to run approximately 4% above last year. Ground pricing is rising roughly 5.8% and express pricing is rising roughly 13.8%. UPS and FedEx fuel surcharges have returned to their highest levels of the year. FedEx is restructuring its fuel surcharge tables in a way that lowers the stated surcharge percentage while holding or raising the underlying cost to serve.
• The LA/LB port strike deadline has been extended to November 20. The parties are continuing contract talks, but an extension rather than a settlement means the risk of a full work stoppage remains live through the most critical week of the peak season.
• Driver availability is running well below tight thresholds and has declined significantly since earlier this year. Equipment purchases by large carriers are tracking above prior levels, but the driver seats to operate that equipment are not filling at the same pace. Supply recovery in truckload will be slower than the equipment data suggests.
• The October jobs report showed 165,000 net new payrolls, with transportation and warehousing adding 25,000 positions. Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs. The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.5, its tenth consecutive month of expansion, beating expectations.

Port to Porch

Truckload: Soft Spot Market Conceals a Driver-Constrained Supply Base

The spot market remains soft heading into the final weeks of the year, but the supply picture is more constrained than the spot softness implies. A widely followed capacity index indicates that equipment is being added to the market, but that growth is concentrated at large carriers. Driver availability, tracked separately, is well inside the threshold that is considered tight, and has declined by approximately 12% since early 2026. Large carriers are acquiring new equipment and attracting drivers away from smaller operators. The result is a K-shaped supply dynamic: the equipment count is growing, but the drivers to operate it are not.

Other signals confirm the direction. The share of load offers that carriers reject is running at roughly 14%, well above the 4% to 6% range that was typical through 2023 to 2025. The for-hire tractor count has declined approximately 14% from its first-half 2026 average as smaller operators have exited. New carrier entry has also slowed significantly: the share of new entrants purchasing liability insurance is at its lowest level in at least seven years, indicating that new supply is not forming at a pace that would offset the structural losses already baked into the market.

This matters for the rate outlook. Capacity is not returning to the market in a meaningful way. The estimate among market participants is that it will take six months to a year or longer before supply normalizes, even without a demand shock. Any disruption, whether a weather event, a regulatory change, or a port-driven surge in inland freight, could push spot rates up quickly from current levels.

Diesel prices are expected to decline modestly over the next year, with forecasts pointing to a level roughly a dollar below current national averages. That would provide some operating cost relief, but refinery capacity rather than crude supply is the more binding constraint on fuel pricing, and that dynamic is unlikely to change materially in the near term.

Parcel: Peak Pricing Up, Hiring Down, Fuel Surcharge Tables Restructured

Peak parcel volume is projected to increase approximately 4% versus the prior year. The rate environment heading into that volume is meaningfully higher than last year. Ground pricing is rising roughly 5.8% and express pricing roughly 13.8% on a year-over-year basis.

UPS and FedEx fuel surcharges have moved back to the high end of their 2026 range, returning to levels above 30%. FedEx has announced a structural change to its fuel surcharge tables: the stated surcharge percentage will decrease, but the underlying base cost to serve is increasing at the same time. The practical effect for shippers is that total cost is likely to stay flat or increase even as the surcharge line item falls. This is a meaningful distinction when reviewing carrier invoices or modeling 2027 carrier costs.

UPS is bringing on approximately 100,000 seasonal workers for peak, consistent with recent years. USPS is hiring 10,000 seasonal employees, down from 14,000 last year. Both organizations attribute the reduction in seasonal headcount to automation investments made over the past several years, which reduce the number of positions needed to process and deliver the same or higher volume.

LTL: NMFTA Rule Text Released; Q3 Earnings Show Universal Weight Growth

The NMFTA released the full text of its proposed mixed commodity classification rule this week. The rule text allows shippers to continue itemizing individual freight on a bill of lading, but introduces additional requirements that clarify the conditions under which a carrier may reclassify freight based on the pallet-level characteristics of the shipment. The rule is more precise than a blanket elimination of item-level itemization, but it does narrow the range of circumstances in which item-level ratings are protected. Shippers who rely on specific BOL structures to manage LTL class and pricing should work through the actual rule text rather than relying on summaries.

Q3 earnings data, now complete across the major carriers, shows revenue growth at every reporting carrier. The table below reflects year-over-year percentage changes in key operating metrics for the quarter.

The clearest signal in the data is universal growth in weight per shipment. Every carrier that reported weight data showed an increase, ranging from 1% at FedEx Freight to 13% at ArcBest. The ArcBest figure deserves a specific note: the carrier acknowledged in its own earnings release that the increase is largely attributable to its dynamic pricing model, which preferentially fills backhaul lanes with heavier, larger shipments when capacity is available. That is a pricing strategy, not a demand signal, and it limits the conclusions that can be drawn about broader freight mix trends from that number alone.

XPO posted the strongest shipment growth among reporting carriers at 5.8% per day, while ODFL, ArcBest and FedEx Freight each saw shipment-per-day declines. Revenue growth was broadly strong despite mixed volume trends, reflecting continued pricing discipline across the sector.

TFI International made public statements during its quarterly review about its intent to build a non-union LTL carrier in the United States. TFI operates T-Force Freight as its primary LTL brand. Hercules Freight is the named vehicle for the non-union build, with growth expected to come through acquisition over time. The stated rationale is operational redundancy: a non-union option provides insulation against labor disruption risk within T-Force.

Ocean / Drayage: Strike Deadline Extended Without Resolution

The contract deadline for ILWU Local 26 at Los Angeles and Long Beach has been extended to November 20 as talks continue. No settlement has been reached. The extension keeps the risk of a full work stoppage live through the most consequential week of the peak season, with Week 47 beginning November 16 and Black Friday merchandise deadlines immediately following.

The structure of the dispute matters for understanding the exposure. ILWU Local 26 represents a small group of security workers at the port complex, not the larger population of dock workers and equipment operators. However, if that group strikes, other ILWU members will not cross picket lines. A work stoppage by the security unit would effectively halt vessel, yard and gate operations across the terminal complex.

Import volumes are running at approximately 200,000 to 300,000 containers per week through Los Angeles and Long Beach. Rail dwell at the ports is already running at roughly seven days. Under those conditions, a work stoppage would create a cargo clearance problem that could not be resolved before Week 47, which begins November 17 and represents the last meaningful window before Black Friday merchandise deadlines. Outbound Los Angeles is expected to be congested and expensive through the end of peak regardless of how the labor situation resolves, as the volume and geography create tight conditions in a wide radius around Southern California.

Import volumes are expected to decelerate sharply in November and December relative to October, in line with the front-loading behavior that has characterized 2026. The National Retail Federation projects import growth decelerating from above 8% year over year in October to roughly flat in November. The U.S.-China tariff truce expires January 10, and the gap between current import volumes and what genuine Q1 2027 demand would look like without tariff-driven pull-forward is not yet clear.

Macroeconomic Indicators

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October, up from 54.5 in September and above expectations. It was the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the manufacturing sector and the strongest reading in the current expansion cycle. All five headline components, including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, were above 50. The report noted that price pressures eased modestly. Ten consecutive months of manufacturing expansion is a constructive backdrop for freight demand tied to industrial activity, though the connection between manufacturing output and freight demand has been uneven in 2026 as capital equipment and AI infrastructure have driven a disproportionate share of the growth.

Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 in October, well above the average monthly gain of 48,000 over the prior 12 months. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, where it has remained within a narrow range since March. Transportation and warehousing added 25,000 jobs in October, with couriers and messengers accounting for 17,000 of that gain, consistent with seasonal parcel hiring. Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% over the prior year, the latter remaining below PCE inflation. Prior months were revised upward by a combined 84,000, reinforcing a picture of an employment market that is stronger than recent monthly readings suggested.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 0.6% in September. Shelter accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase, rising 0.3%. Food increased 0.5%. Energy rose 0.7%, a sharp deceleration from the 5.2% jump in September. The core index, which excludes food and energy, held at 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Transportation services rose 0.8% on the month. Year-over-year comparisons are not available for most series because BLS did not collect data in October 2025 due to a lapse in government appropriations; gasoline, which has a continuous series, was up 37.4% year over year.

The monthly deceleration in headline CPI is consistent with energy cost pressure easing after September’s spike. Core inflation holding at 0.3% for three straight months suggests price pressures are plateauing rather than resolving. The Federal Reserve’s two dissenting votes at the October meeting in favor of a rate increase reflect that dynamic: the direction is favorable but the pace is not fast enough to give the committee confidence. The transportation services reading, up 0.8% on the month, is a direct cost input for shippers managing freight under carrier agreements that include CPI-linked escalation provisions.

Looking Ahead

The port situation is the one of the highest-priority planning variables on the immediate horizon. A work stoppage at Los Angeles and Long Beach at this point in the peak calendar cannot be absorbed by rerouting alone. East and Gulf Coast alternatives have been absorbing diverted volume throughout 2026 and are not operating with meaningful slack. Shippers with West Coast dependencies who have not built contingency routing into their November plans should do so now.

Week 47 begins November 16. That is the historical inflection point for peak-season rate acceleration in truckload. With driver availability tight and the spot market currently soft, the transition into Week 47 is the moment when conditions can change quickly. Shippers who are still uncommitted on capacity have a narrow window remaining.

The NMFTA rule text is now available. The summary-level read is that the rule is not a dramatic overhaul, but it narrows the conditions under which item-level ratings are protected on mixed-commodity shipments. The specifics matter and they vary by shipper. The time to model the exposure is before the vote, not after.

The U.S.-China tariff truce expires January 10. The question that matters for Q1 planning is not whether imports will fall after the truce, but by how much of the 2026 volume was genuine demand versus pull-forward. Importers who have been building inventory against the tariff deadline should model their Q1 freight requirements against realistic demand assumptions, not against the volume run rates of the past six months.