Weekly Freight Trends: September 21-25, 2026

The brief post-Labor Day lull is over. Tender rejections fell and then reversed, climbing back above 14% without following the seasonal pattern that typically holds them down for most of September. The reason is fuel. With diesel above $6 nationally, fuel costs are pressuring the working capital of smaller carriers and pushing all-in costs higher regardless of what line haul rates are doing. Add intermodal tapping out, a Canadian tariff deadline, a trade summit and import peak season still running, and the week of September 21 is one of the more consequential in the current freight cycle. The decisions shippers make before September 24 will look different from the ones they make after.

Key Takeaways

• Diesel well above $6 nationally is the dominant freight cost story. Fuel surcharges at the two largest parcel carriers have reached their highest levels on record, and the same fuel pressure is driving LTL costs and all-in truckload costs higher, even as linehaul rates hold relatively flat.
• Post-Labor Day tender rejections fell from 14.5% to 13% and then climbed back above 14%, an unusual reversal of the seasonal pattern that signals structural tightening in the market is not giving ground even in the weeks that typically offer shippers the most leverage.
• JB Hunt announced that intermodal capacity is at maximum levels. Freight that cannot be accommodated on rail will need to move over-the-road at a time when the truckload network is already tight and specialty equipment is under peak stress.
• Canadian tariffs on dairy, alcohol and vehicles are scheduled to take effect at the end of September. Shippers importing those commodity categories from Canada should be moving product now. The planning window is effectively closed.
• The Trump-Xi summit on September 24 could loosen trade restrictions on up to $30 billion in goods. Additional import volume, if it materializes, would land on a West Coast gateway where container dwell is already averaging 6.5 days and is expected to worsen.

Port to Porch Forecast

Truckload: The Bounce Is the Signal

Post-Labor Day tender rejections followed the expected seasonal pattern for exactly one week, dropping from 14.5% to 13%, and then reversed. Rejections climbed back above 14% this week. The typical September pattern holds rejections flat or modestly declining before they begin the Q4 rise in October and November. The snap-back this week suggests the structural tightness in the market is not giving ground even in the seasonally soft weeks that typically offer shippers the most leverage in procurement.

Fuel is carrying costs forward independently of line haul dynamics. Line haul rates have been relatively stable, but all-in costs are moving higher because fuel is moving higher. The impact is most acute for specialty equipment. Temperature-controlled capacity running peak Pacific Northwest produce lanes is absorbing both the fuel pressure and seasonal volume simultaneously. Flatbed is under similar pressure. Shippers on those equipment types are in the most expensive stretch of the year and it has not peaked.

A key industry shipment volume metric turned positive year-over-year for the first time in 42 months this week, confirming that freight activity is building across the board. For shippers using the relative softness in van tender rejections to lock in procurement pricing, the window is narrowing. Intermodal capacity is at maximum levels at major carriers, and as that mode fills, freight that would have moved via rail will convert to over-the-road. The capacity available to absorb that conversion is limited and it is not cheap.

Parcel: Record Fuel Surcharges and a Shifting Carrier Landscape

Ground fuel surcharges at the two largest parcel carriers have reached their highest levels on record. The cost of operating high-density residential delivery routes is compressing margins for carriers and shippers who have not re-modeled their per-shipment economics under current fuel conditions. That surcharge, layered on top of peak demand surcharges that began earlier and carry more complexity than prior years, makes the cost of an unplanned peak strategy materially higher than a managed one.

Carrier	Peak Surcharge Announcement
FedEx	Peak Demand Surcharges
UPS	Shipping Costs & Rates
USPS	Transportation-Related Price Change
OnTrac	Surcharges and Rates
Amazon Shipping	Peak Surcharge 2026

OnTrac is launching a capacity-based dynamic pricing model that offers preferred rates when available capacity exists in its network. That kind of pricing flexibility is a meaningful development for shippers evaluating alternative carrier options, because it introduces a mechanism for cost reduction that responds to actual network conditions rather than fixed published rates. The alternative carrier landscape continues to develop in ways that create options for the right shippers heading into peak.

The qualifying language on fit still matters. Alternative carriers are selective about the business they take on. Amazon Shipping is entering peak with known service constraints and is optimized for high-volume e-commerce shippers with consistent daily pickup density at each location, not for lower volume stops. The carriers adding capabilities and expanding geographic reach are doing so in specific corridors with specific volume requirements. Assess your volume profile honestly before treating any of them as a universal option. The opportunity is real for the right shipper, but determining whether you are that shipper requires an evaluation, not an assumption.

LTL: Driver Shortage Moves from Background to Foreground

A major LTL carrier spoke publicly this week about the driver shortage, stating they are struggling to recruit and retain drivers and that the problem is not expected to improve without changes to federal regulations. That kind of explicit public acknowledgment from an LTL carrier is a shift in the narrative. LTL has historically operated with more driver stability than truckload, and when that stability comes under sustained pressure heading into peak, the buffer that LTL shippers have historically relied on gets thinner.

Against that backdrop, a key LTL shipment volume index turned positive year-over-year for the first time in many months. Volume growth and capacity constraint arriving simultaneously is the setup for service degradation at peak. LTL fuel surcharges are running in the 43% to 52% range across carriers, and as volume builds into a tighter network, the frequency of reclass and reweigh disputes increases. FedEx Freight named a new chief technology officer this week following a swift leadership change after the carrier’s recent spin-off. Shippers with complex freight classifications and informal claims processes should formalize both before peak volume generates the disputes that become expensive to resolve after the fact.

Drayage and Ocean: Three Deadlines in One Week

Canadian tariffs on dairy, alcohol and vehicles are scheduled to take effect at the end of September. The EU’s offer to Canada of associate membership status adds a longer-term variable for East Coast shippers importing from Europe, but that negotiation remains in progress. For shippers with Canadian origin product in any of the affected categories, the planning window for moving that inventory is effectively closed. Product still in transit or awaiting shipment is at risk of landing in a materially different cost environment than the one it was contracted under.

The Trump-Xi summit on September 24 carries significant binary risk for West Coast volume. A potential loosening of restrictions on $30 billion in goods would direct additional inbound volume to the West Coast at a moment when that gateway is already under maximum stress. Container dwell at LA/Long Beach is averaging 6.5 days and is expected to worsen as peak import volumes arrive. JB Hunt’s announcement of maximum intermodal capacity is not just a service warning. It is a signal that overflow freight from rail will need to move by truck, adding pressure to a dray network that is already short on drivers. The Panama Canal continues to operate below full capacity due to water levels, limiting routing flexibility and concentrating volume on fewer lane options.

Import volumes are tracking the normal 2025 seasonal trend line rather than the elevated levels seen in the same period last year. That context matters because the system is absorbing a normal peak while operating at below-normal capacity margins across nearly every mode. Finalize dray commitments, West Coast transload arrangements and intermodal contingency plans before September 24. The trade picture that exists after the summit may not be the one you planned for.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Advance Retail and Food Services Sales, August 2026

The Advance Retail and Food Services Sales report for August, released September 16 by the U.S. Census Bureau, showed total sales of $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from July and up 6.0% from August 2025. The three-month period from June through August was also up 6.0% year-over-year, and the July reading was revised to down 0.5% from the initial estimate of down 0.6%. For freight markets, a 1.2% monthly increase in retail sales at this point in the calendar reflects consumer demand holding ahead of peak season. Sustained retail sales growth of this magnitude generates downstream replenishment and inventory restocking activity that typically translates into truckload, parcel and LTL volume in the weeks that follow. The September Retail Sales report is due October 16.

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, July 2026

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report for July, released September 16 by the U.S. Census Bureau, showed combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments of $2,120.7 billion, up 0.3% from June and up 8.9% from July 2025. Total business inventories reached $2,764.7 billion, up 0.8% from June and up 3.8% from a year ago. The total business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.30, down from 1.37 in July 2025. For freight markets, a declining inventories-to-sales ratio means goods are moving through the supply chain faster than inventory is being rebuilt. That dynamic supports freight demand in the near term and signals that shippers will need to replenish heading into peak rather than drawing on existing stock. The August Business Inventories report is due October 16.

New Residential Construction, August 2026

The New Residential Construction report for August, released September 17 by the U.S. Census Bureau, showed privately-owned housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000, down 2.6% from July and down 1.2% from August 2025. Single-family starts rose 7.6% from July to a rate of 918,000. Building permits came in at 1,394,000, down 2.7% from July but up 3.5% from August 2025. Housing completions fell 11.9% from July and 27.1% from a year ago. For freight markets, continued single-family construction growth sustains demand for building materials and appliances, supporting flatbed and LTL activity. The sharp decline in completions signals reduced near-term move-in volume for residential freight categories, but the permits and starts data point to activity that will generate freight demand well into 2027. The September New Residential Construction report is due October 17.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, August 2026

The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for August, published September 18 by the Federal Reserve, showed total industrial production (IP) unchanged after gaining 0.2 percent in July. Manufacturing output fell 0.3% in August, ending a seven-month streak of consecutive gains. Total IP stood at 103.1% of its 2017 average, up 1.4% year-over-year. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, remaining 3.1% below its long-run average. For freight markets, a pause in manufacturing output following sustained expansion is worth monitoring. Manufacturing activity is a leading indicator of industrial freight demand, and a single-month dip after seven consecutive months of growth suggests the production side of the economy may be consolidating. The October Industrial Production report is due October 17.

Looking Ahead: Three Deadlines, One Week

Every signal from this week points to the same short planning window. The Canadian tariff deadline, the Trump-Xi summit and JB Hunt’s intermodal capacity ceiling all resolve or shift before Friday. The tender rejection bounce tells you the structural floor is holding even in September. Fuel is keeping all-in costs elevated regardless of what line haul is doing. The retail sales data says consumer demand is holding. The inventory-to-sales ratios say supply chains are lean. The manufacturing pause says watch the production side of freight demand closely going into October.

The actions are direct. If you move Canadian dairy, alcohol or vehicles, act now. Finalize Q4 dray and transload commitments before the summit changes the trade equation. Review your intermodal programs against the JB Hunt capacity announcement and model the over-the-road conversion cost for any freight that cannot wait. In LTL, formalize your freight classification documentation and claims processes before peak volume arrives. In parcel, assess whether your volume profile and service territory make alternative carrier routing a viable option — the opportunity is real for the right shipper, but the evaluation must happen before peak capacity is absorbed. The market is telling you exactly what is coming.